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DTN Midday Grain Comments 06/24 10:53
Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday; Corn Flat-Lower
Corn futures are flat to 2 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures
are 6 to 8 cents lower; wheat futures are 5 to 15 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are flat to 2 cents lower at midday Tuesday; soybean futures
are 6 to 8 cents lower; wheat futures are 5 to 15 cents lower. The U.S. stock
market is firmer with the S&P 60 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 55
points lower. The interest rate products are firmer. Energy trade is sharply
weaker with crude 3.40 lower and natural gas .09 lower. Livestock trade is
mostly lower with hogs the downside leader. Precious metals are weaker with
gold down 76.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are flat to 2 cents lower at midday as we get more oversold as
risk-off trade continues and we digest world events and near-term weather
remains mostly good. Ethanol margins remain rangebound with the weakness in
both corn and unleaded. Heat should ease into midweek with wetter weather for
the central and northern belt. Weekly crop progress showed the
good-to-excellent portion of the crop down 2 percentage points to 70% with 6%
poor to very poor; 4% silking versus 3% on average. The daily export wire
finally saw some life with 630,000 metric tons booked by Mexico. Basis
continues to hold the recent range. On the July chart, the 20-day moving
average at $4.40 is resistance with the lower Bollinger Band at $4.18.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with light selling
continuing as oil tumbles from the upper end of the range and meal is unable to
sustain short-covering. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00 lower and oil was 100 to 110
points lower. Rains should boost growth for most through midweek. Weekly crop
progress showed good-to-excellent unchanged at 66% with 7% poor to very poor;
90% emerged same as average; and 8% blooming versus 7% on average. Basis should
remain stable near term. On the July chart, support is the 20-day moving
average at $10.54 which we are testing at midday, with the recent high at
$10.82 as resistance.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 5 to 15 cents lower with spillover from the row crops and
harvest pressure helping to find sellers again even as we are well behind the
usual harvest pace and the dollar sinks. The hard red wheat areas should start
to see harvest move ahead as warmer temps aid maturity with drier weather this
week while spring wheat areas should see better rains. Weekly crop progress
showed winter wheat harvest 19% complete versus 28% on average; 49% good to
excellent, off 3%; and 19% poor to very poor. Spring wheat 17% headed versus
18% on average; good to excellent down 3% to 54%; and 15% poor to very poor.
MATIF wheat is sharply lower as well. On the KC July chart, support is the
20-day moving average at $5.40, which we are just below at midday, with the
Upper Bollinger Band at $5.66 as resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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